‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Stock.
The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's kitchens.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.
"Conditions are critical. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the an industry group.
Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."
Localized Effects
In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Authority's View
Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.
India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being prioritized to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.
About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.
According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on shipping data and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The primary concern is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative states exploitative practices.
"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.
