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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.