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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.